Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.
Basic
16
Ṁ444
2029
27%
chance

Resolves NO if at any point before Jan 21st, 2029 independence of the Federal Reserve has been reduced. I'm open to refining resolution criteria until Trump's inauguration on Jan 21st 2025.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854783747264012792

Elon Musk has endorsed US Senator Mike Lee's call to end the Federal Reserve and give the president direct control over monetary policy.

I will not bet on this market.

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If this was actually going to happen (abolishing the Fed, and/or putting monetary policy under direct control of POTUS) I'd expect a rather dramatic reaction from the stock market. However the resolution criteria say it would resolve "yes" under more modest changes than I imagined reading the question text.

Just curious if yes holders think this is a good or bad thing? For me if it's no longer independent, I'd sell all my US stocks.

Wilcox gives the Court’s Republican majority a vehicle to overrule Humphrey’s Executor in its entirety — potentially ending independence for all federal agencies, including the Fed.

https://www.vox.com/scotus/408848/supreme-court-donald-trump-unitary-executive-wilcox

How will you resolve this? What if its independence is only slightly reduced?

I hope so

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