I was the first alternate for 2023, and I've learned a few more tips since...but will I have the dedication and luck needed to qualify for my last chance: the 2024 IOL planned for Brasilia, Brazil?
See my 2023 market for more details on my past performance — if I have the energy, or this market gets popular, I'll copy them over:
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00@Conflux I’ve decided I’m planning to relinquish my spot, because I think the person who counterfactually replaces me will get more out of the experience than me.
I was thinking of doing a full practice Invitational this weekend, but I actually decided I'm not going to do any prep for the exam, which is next Thursday. The reason is that I was thinking more about what it'd mean for me to be at the IOL, and I realized I'm not especially interested in going full aggro mode to take a slot away from someone who's probably (~75% on each of these) more interested in linguistics than me these days, more excited to go to Brasilia, more inclined to participate in the prep sessions / study / want to be a good member of Team USA, and maybe more likely to benefit from the networking aspect. Especially when I've already proven that I'm approximately good enough.
Anyway, I did get #7 on the Open Round with similar non-amounts of prep, and I acquired some new highlighters, so I might still get top 8 on the Invitational. Note that if I qualify for the IOL but decide to stand aside and not compete in Brasilia, the market would still resolve YES.
@Conflux wait why did I bet yes. it’s true that this data point is an upward update but the market was too high before anyway
@Logaems I’m not sure yet - that’s part of what this market predicts. My preparation will probably happen closer to the Invitational Round, so like Feb/March.