Do you believe that Safe Superintelligence Inc. will be _________ for the world?
Do you believe that Safe Superintelligence Inc. will be _________ for the world?
5
resolved Jan 1
Net-positive
Net-neutral
Net-negative
What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)
What will be true of Safe Superintelligence Inc.? [Add Answers]
If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year?
17% chance
Will Artificial Superintelligence be developed in the USA while Donald Trump is president?
22% chance
Will Safe Superintelligence have more than 100 employees by mid-2025?
55% chance
When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
What organization will first create superintelligence?
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
59% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
34% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
72% chance