Will o3's score on the Last Exam be above 30%?
Will o3's score on the Last Exam be above 30%?
Plus
30
Ṁ4384resolved Mar 4
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ306 | |
2 | Ṁ162 | |
3 | Ṁ140 | |
4 | Ṁ138 | |
5 | Ṁ135 |
Sort by:
closing the question for now. I'm inclined to resolve no but i'm not sure. tool use is ok if the tool is running python imo, but not looking up the answer on the internet? hmmm
bought Ṁ10 NO2mo
The Last Exam appears to be primarily a knowledge benchmark, rather than a problem-solving benchmark. All frontier models score very highly on other knowledge benchmarks, but score poorly on The Last Exam. o3 is unlikely to be significantly more knowledgeable than other frontier models.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
27% chance
What will be o3's score on Humanity's Last Exam?
Will Mac get above 70% in DENT461??
66% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
82% chance
o4-mini scores 85%+ on GPQA?
40% chance
What will Grok 3's score be on Humanity's Last Exam?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
76% chance
What will be o3's score on FrontierMath?
Will at least 90% of students get a B or Higher in my ECON-189 3:30 class?
40% chance
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-