2027, China surprises the world by landing a woman on the moon.
American Empire wakes up,

2033, America lands the first person on Mars

staking my call here

@Bandors i'll bet against at 50%

@Bayesian I put another 50m on China

Congrats that's the 100th time someone's made this market

@jim for reference

/KewlKid/first-to-land-humans-on-the-moon-ag

/BillMotz/who-will-send-the-next-astronauts-t

/lastuserhere/which-country-would-land-the-next-p

there are more but these are some of the canonical ones

💀 oops

@Bayesian the more the merrier really

@jim First to Land Humans on the Moon Again is a bad market unfortunately. The creator's comments have been declarifying and mostly opened up unnecessary cans of worms.

@JoshuaWilkes would you be willing to expand on/explain these claims?

@Bayesian If necessary, but I think the comments section speaks for itself:

@JoshuaWilkes I totally misread your comment and now understand you were referring to that linked market. That makes sense, it’s kind of cursed to deal with some edge cases sometimes.. but lol to no Other option

@jim I was about to make this question, open manifold, see this :) @Bayesian What media did you consume to make you create this market?

@FergusArgyll saw a tweet about china odds increasing on metaculus or something like that

@Bayesian Ah, I don't know if this is the origin, but this is what made me think about it.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/after-recent-tests-china-appears-likely-to-beat-the-united-states-back-to-the-moon/

@FergusArgyll jim is like no shit I've been saying this for years, but also I think the USA will win because AGI.

@FergusArgyll Thanks for sharing. That’s a really good interview by Eric. Even if one doesn’t share the expert’s political priorities, he explores a lot of interesting consequences.

Artemis 3 is expected to include one Canadian. Two of the four will land, including a woman and a person of color. Gotta be at least a small chance that one is both and the other is the Canuck, right?

I like this one, it's a good idea.

I assume dual (or multiple) citizenship resolves proportionately as well?

@EvanDaniel Yeahyeah

@Bayesian In such case, I am buying Other. Dual citizenships are not that rare.

Does "successfully" require the astronauts return to Earth alive?

@ShankarSivarajan No

I'd like to add the ESA, should it be broken down by member country or taken as a whole?

@sblaplace What’s the ESA

@Bayesian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Space_Agency The combined space agency for most of the EU, though not itself an EU organization

European Space Agency - Wikipedia

@sblaplace As stated this market will just be about the astronauts’ citizenship status but it’d be interesting for someone to create a market that isolates the ESA