Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025? | Manifold

Which of the following users will stay active on manifold until EOY 2025?

Plus

37

Ṁ12k

2026

95%

93%

90%

90%

80%

80%

73%

67%

58%

50%

50%

48%

@SteveSokolowski

44%

43%

15%

Feel free to add yourselves or any other user :p

"Not active" is not defined precisely, but the idea is that if someone essentially stops going on manifold a few times per week, for a month or two, their option can resolve NO.

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@Bayesian Blankspace got banned, his option can resolve

@bagelfan what'd he do (apart from the usual)?

@benshindel He didn't start doing anything different but him constantly starting his hateful views across many markets grew tiresome and mods recommended a ban.

Here's the statement from @SirSalty

(sorry for the late reply)

@Bayesian resolve please

🙃

😭

bought Ṁ250 NO

Eliezer hasn’t been active for a couple months, and Ammon stopped being active for an extended period too.

bought Ṁ250 YES

@snazzlePop Tyty

@stardust Inspired by jim's market!

bought Ṁ150 NO

@Bayesian a bunch of these should resolve no

Thanks

wait, should people not buy their own option to 100%, because if they quit the app it won't be a disadvantage to lose this mana anyway? hmMmMmMm

@Bayesian I've been shorting everyone except Gabrielle bc of this distortionary effect 🤭

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 40% order

@Stralor got a limit order on my option >:)

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Bayesian sure I'll bite a lil out for now :D

bought Ṁ100 YES

I've been around since the beginning, I'll probably still be around

bought Ṁ10 NO

very likely they will take a break

@nikki I've taken a break before, so I can see myself taking a break again

It's actually so hard to tell if I should buy any of these up or down, so passes the new market sniff test

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