Next Anthropic Model tops Chatbot Leaderboard? (lmarena.ai)
18
Ṁ9614Jun 14
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
By arena score, when it first appears on the leaderboard (unless it doesn't appear there in the first month after release, in which case the market resolves N/A).
If they announce two models at once (for example, they release 3.8 opus and 3.8 sonnet at the same time or on the same day), then this market will consider the highest arena score of the models announced on that day.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@HenriThunberg is there a probability you would bet a lot more at? others lmk as well. I'd like to increase the volume of my position if possible, and am hoping i'll find counterparties that also want to
@jim only 6000 shares? what kind of tiny upside is that? i'd bet more if i were you
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