The BRICS nations have recently announced their intention to create a gold-backed common currency for use in trade. This market will resolve YES if, by Jan 1st 2025 at least one of the BRICS nations has introduced a gold-backed currency.
In order to count as gold-backed, the currency must: have provable gold reserves audited by a reputable third party and have a fixed rate of exchange (the gold standard). I will not count it if the currency is unavailable for use outside its country of origin (this is to forestall some of the central bank shenanigans that e.g. China is prone to). It doesn't matter if the currency is physical bills or purely digitally issued. I will count a simple ledger system used to balance accounts between the member nations so long as it is backed with proven gold reserves.
If bettors have any additional suggestions for refining the resolution criteria, I'm open to them - so you may expect a few changes that are intended to better capture the spirit of "will they actually make a currency they can't inflate and then really use it?" I will not bet on this market.
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3.00Currency is a countries primary means of control. Countries in BRICS tend to like control. Unlikely they will switch to a currency that gives them less control.
Wow, you guys are far more pessimistic about this than I expected. Is it something to do with the resolution criteria, or do you just think there's no way on earth any country is surrendering 'monetary sovereignty' to return to a metallic standard?
@AndrewHartman I wouldn't say "no way on earth", but 2025 is soon, this would be massive, and I think there's many things working against it. But I'm open to being convinced otherwise.
@FranekZak I'll admit I picked an earlier date, though that's partly because longer term markets are somewhat disincentivized. But given that there've been rumors about this for months, and the parties involved have an incentive to adopt fairly quickly if they're going to bother (particularly Russia) I figure it's a reasonable choice for timeline.
@AndrewHartman the title made me think this market was about a country making their primary currency gold-backed, I hope people are reading the description
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00