Will there be an Asian-American Democratic Nominee before 2060?
Will there be an Asian-American Democratic Nominee before 2060?
Basic
9
Ṁ2042060
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
!Kamala Harris is excluded for this resolution!
If deciding whether the nominee is considered Asian-American is controversial, I will conduct a poll and resort to poll result
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Will there be an Chinese/Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese American Democratic Nominee before 2060?
69% chance
Will there be an Asian-American Republican Nominee before 2060?
79% chance
Will there be an Asian-American President of the United States before 2060?
57% chance
Will there be an Chinese/Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese American Republican Nominee before 2060?
52% chance
Will there be an asian U.S President before 2050?
54% chance
Will there be an Chinese/Korean/Japanese/Taiwanese American President before 2060?
64% chance
Will the US have an Asian president by 2041?
48% chance
Will there be a non-white Republican Nominee before the end of 2032?
28% chance