Numerous media sources have reported that, if elected in 2024, Donald Trump plans to arrest his political opponents (eg. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/aug/30/trump-interview-jail-political-opponents-glenn-beck)
Gen. Mark Milley, who served as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump, has said:
"Milley has told friends that he expects that if Trump returns to the White House, the newly elected president will come after him. “He’ll start throwing people in jail, and I’d be on the top of the list,” he has said." (https://archive.is/eXrmE)
This market resolves YES if, during 2025, a Trump administration files at least three cases against prominent opponents for political reasons. Each case must:
Charge his opponents with federal crimes, which have imprisonment as a potential penalty.
Have defendants which are prominent opponents of Trump, as defined by having a Wikipedia article prior to the case against them being charged. Eg., arresting low-profile Mexican-Americans for immigration violations would not count.
Have a clearly political motivation, as defined by the consensus of reliable sources on Wikipedia.
At least three separate cases are required. If three defendants are charged, but there is only a single indictment (eg. for conspiracy), this market resolves NO.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO. If Donald Trump does not serve as President in 2025, this market resolves N/A.
1,000
3.00Why do people believe this is <50% likely?
Trump has said he would do this. He will very likely have Kash Patel and Pam Bondi doing his bidding. Patel has made numerous insane gestures, including publishing an enemies list. In the past 2 weeks, Trump has shown he is serious about installing full loyalty in every agency and purging anyone disloyal, even if they merely object that the procedures followed do not comply with the law. Many of his EOs are in direct contradiction with laws or even the Constitution. Some of those will be constrained by the courts. But this market doesn't require sentencing, only charging.
You might bring up that they didn't charge Clinton during his first term, but Trump's first term was immensely different and he had to play nice with the Republican Party. He's no longer constrained much by them.
You might think that it takes time to bring up serious charges, make sure it goes to a Trump-appointed judge, and that this is unlikely to occur before 2026, but likely to happen before 2029. Fair. But looking at the current pace set and the disregard for even simple stuff like giving Congress 30 days notice of firing certain federal staff, I expect a fast pace.
Curious to get your takes @SemioticRivalry @Joshua @IsaacKing (some well-calibrated NO holders). I'm doing this forecasting thing with constant brain fog, and happy to learn if I'm missing something.
Good recent piece on Patel: https://archive.is/IxNWa
@traders I've got a limit order at 50% - this market seems seriously miscalibrated to me, so take your profits if you disagree with me
Here's a related market specifically just for Jack Smith.
https://manifold.markets/DanW/will-donald-trump-deport-imprison-d
Good question. I've added it to my dashboard on US Democracy: https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy
Could you please change the title so that it's clear that this is conditional on Trump being elected? 🙂 And that it's about charging them rather than arresting?
Also, I'm assuming Trump as a private citizen charging his opponents wouldn't count?
@BenjaminIkuta yeah. Clear enough for Wikipedia, especially for a high-profile, controversial article is a very high bar to clear. It's unlikely, for example, that reasonable people having 95% confidence would be sufficient for this.
@PhilosophyBear I think it should be clarified if we're talking about specifically Wikipedia making the statement in the encyclopedic voice rather than attributing the claim.
A similar, but much more specific, market is https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/if-trump-is-elected-in-2024-will-jo. So I think they could be arbitraged so that this one is strictly higher.
@MilfordHammerschmidt Yes, federal prosecutors and other federal law enforcement (who report to the President).