Can you clarify how much direct involvement from Trump is required, here? Would you have resolved an identical reverse question YES due to Trump's various indictments for example, or would you leave a reverse question as NO due to us not having direct evidence of Biden making the call on moving forward with any of those?

Here’s what I can do for you dear:

Added to the US Democracy dashboard:

https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy

Can you please add the US democracy tag? Thanks :)

@Siebe can my market by added as well? https://manifold.markets/BrunoParga/will-the-2024-us-presidential-elect-8ec83c4e9644

@BrunoParga done! I'd also love to see a 2028 version, as it's a good question

@Siebe your wish is my command https://manifold.markets/BrunoParga/will-the-2028-us-presidential-elect-hPLuAcZEQI

I do think there's a chance of election rules changing, legitimately or less so. I'll consider normality based on legitimate changes, and legitimacy is determined by the same rules as the market itself. (So like if US citizens are deported that's not normal.)

Need a list of opponents here… or some limiting condition beyond someone who doesn’t like Trump goes to jail

@jdilla if any public figure, for instance in the media or politics, is arrested based on allegations Trump supports, this market resolves YES.

@jdilla If you want to start a list, thank you! But I can’t promise it will be exhaustive. It’s the arrest of public figures that matters, not the being critical of Trump bit.

@BlueDragon so if trump says that Eric Adams was corrupt and Adams gets convicted of corruption this resolves yes?

@Qoiuoiuoiu Interesting, no, because there are already charges against Eric Adams, and the market is not about convictions, it’s about being arrested on charges at Trump’s behest.

@BlueDragon So specifically charges made up from Trump? What if a similar case occurred against some other Democrat today?

@Qoiuoiuoiu Can you elaborate?

@BlueDragon More or less, I'm just asking if the charges have to be false. Like, what if Trump accuses someone of corruption, and by chance they happen to really be corrupt and get arrested? Versus Trump accusing poll workers of fraud and getting them falsely imprisoned.

@Qoiuoiuoiu Yeah it seems too dodgy for me to adjudicate that, so I won’t.