Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
Plus
30
Ṁ1584Jan 1
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Recently, the US DoE changed its assessment of Covid origin to lab origin with a "low confidence". Will any other intelligence agency (or US DoE itself) change their assessment towards a lab origin?
Note, this market will resolve if any US intelligence agencies updates their assessment towards a lab origin. This would mean going either from undecided to low confidence (lab), low to moderate confidence (lab), low natural origin to undecided, moderate to high confidence (lab) and so on.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will another illegal Chinese funded biological lab be discovered in the US in 2024?
44% chance
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
35% chance
Will the Covid Lab Leak Theory become truth by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
34% chance
If Scott Alexander organizes a Covid Origins Debate, will judges rule for lab leak? [Resolves 50% if no debate by 2025]
52% chance
Will I test positive for COVID by end of 2025?
41% chance
Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?
24% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
33% chance
WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?
41% chance
Will the FBI conclude its investigation into the assassination attempt on former President Trump by the end of 2024?
63% chance