What would resolution criteria be here?

@mcint I guess if AGI/ASI has not been reached within 20 years, or if AI leaders reach consensus that it won't happen...

@AitchKay Ok. Your measure is not chess, protein folding, performance on professional or general intelligence tests. Not super-human on individual benchmarks, valid.

Might I suggest an NYT headline? Or many of them? Not OpEd? Frontpage?

All markets get resolved on vibe, but some vibes are: widely known and audited, US election results; some are evident to participants, event attendance markets; and some are games, self-resolving, or in the eye of the beholder.

Without clear resolution criteria, the topic has broad appeal and sounds like a “widely witnessed” outcome, but the de facto resolution criteria are in the eye of the beholder.

What do you think could be some obvious signs AGI/ASI has been reached or not? It can be fun to speculate. It could be fun to have a portfolio of outcomes decide, 5/9 widely observed outcomes.

@AitchKay One of the most important factors is the resolution date. Currently this is set at 2025, and you're suggesting the resolution date could be changed to 20 years. It's worth deciding on a clear resolution date before more people develop positions in this market.

@mcint Yes, I think using "obvious signs" would just lead to argument lol - like you say, widely held consensus in the mainstream press would be an ideal way to resolve

@ElliotDavies True, let me change the date to 2040 as this will give enough indication if AGI is coming or not...