If Tesla reveals a low-cost car (<$30,000) before Jan 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
Reveal means a physical mock-up that is shown, similar to the cybertruck event in 2019. A drawing isn't sufficient.
This will resolve as YES any variant of the car (e.g. one without four-wheel drive) costs less than $30,000.
If a car is revealed that is <$30,000 and is eligible to be owned by members of the general public the market will resolve to YES. Such a car announced to be planned or created someday will not resolve the market to YES. If only the car’s make but no price is announced before Jan 1, 2025, then the market will not resolve the market to YES.
1,000
3.00@traders Status update: Last night Tesla announced their Cybercab product. Elon Musk was unequivocal that the product would be eligible to be owned by members of the general public. However, as to price, Elon Musk was more equivocal. He stated that "we expect the cost to be below $30,000". In the interest of resolving this market on its terms promptly (i.e. not keeping the market open until the price lists in 2026), I will proceed as follows.
Should no new information be published about the Cybercab before it closes this market will resolve to 90% to account for the equivocal nature of the announcement and Elon Musk's admitted tendency to be inaccurate when it comes to timeline and price. Should there be additional statements by Musk or a Tesla spokesperson stating that the cost will be below $30,000 the market will resolve to 95%. Should there be statements before the market closes by both Musk and a Tesla spokesperson confirming that the price will be below $30,000 or a statement to shareholders confirming the same the market will resolve to 97%. Should the price be officially listed on the Tesla website before the market closes this market will resolve to "YES".
However, should a majority of the holders in this market indicate, before December 1st, that they would like to keep the market open until the price is officially listed by liking my reply to this comment, the market will be kept open until then.
@AaronSimansky Like this comment to indicate that you would like to keep the market open until the price is officially listed.
@AaronSimansky I'd like to register my support for closing the market on the original close date (Dec 31, 2024) so that the market stays within the spirit of its title.
@AaronSimansky I am against resolving yet. "Expect" to cost $30k is not an officiall price announcement imo. Also the condition "eligible to be owned by members of the general public the market" is pending regulatory approval. I think the most fair way to resolve the market is if the car able to be pre-orderd with a deposit or wait list on the tesla website for 30k. I think the market currently beeing at 47% agrees with me that this should not be resolved yet
@MarkTerrano If a car is revealed that is <$30,000 and is eligible to be owned by members of the general public the market will resolve to YES.