This market resolves "YES" if, before its close date, Israel cancels or suspends at least for one year the right to return for "grandchildren of Jews" in the Law of Return.
4A. (a) The rights of a Jew under this Law and the rights of an
oleh under the Nationality Law, 5712-1952, as well as the rights of
an oleh under any other enactment, are also vested in a child and a
grandchild of a Jew, the spouse of a Jew, the spouse of a child of a
Jew and the spouse of a grandchild of a Jew, except for a person
who has been a Jew and has voluntarily changed his religion.
Links:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return
Text of the law: https://israeled.org/resources/documents/israels-law-return/
"Israel’s chief rabbi proposes amending the Law of Return": https://www.jns.org/israels-chief-rabbi-proposes-amending-the-law-of-return/
If you think that market formulation is not precise enough and has potential gray areas, please comment on this.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
1,000
3.00"Presumed incoming prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will oppose a demand from far-right and religious parties to abolish the so-called grandchild clause in the Law of Return, according to a Wednesday report."
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-724756
"Likud will not agree to change in Israel's Law of Return - report. The Likud will instead offer a committee to block the exploitation of olim rights."
