Annex = seizing land in Gaza unilaterally and indefinitely by building new Israeli controlled infrastructure.
1,000
3.00I've created an alternative market with clearer resolution criteria: https://manifold.markets/UnspecifiedPerson/will-israel-annex-any-part-of-gaza-sp0tu9guZq
@datachef if Israel builds roads and turns the Philadelphi and Netrazim corridors into militarized zones that Palestinians are not allowed in, does it count as yes?
“There’s nothing left in Gaza to do. The major achievements have been achieved,” he was quoted saying. “I fear we are staying there just because there is a desire to stay there,” he added, potentially referring to Netanyahu’s stated insistence on absolute victory over Hamas, and possibly to far-right calls to occupy the Strip and create Israeli settlements.
@datachef Neither Israel nor any other country claims that Gaza is part of Israel.
Can you explain what you think the difference between occupation and annexation is?
Because your definition (seizing land and building a base) seems more like occupation to me.
@Shai you all asked for a definition, I gave you one. Now apply it. Stop complaining. The Israelis regularly and openly discuss “annexing” Gaza. Period.
@datachef can you clarify this market pelase https://manifold.markets/datachef/will-israel-break-ground-on-a-settl - how is this one any different?
@vitamind that would be a civilian settlement like in the West Bank. This is about a policy of annexation.
@datachef I already sold my shares. It's just factually incorrect that Gaza is Israeli sovereign territory.
@Shai it is a refugee camp inside Israel and it is not Palestinian sovereign territory so I guess it’s nobody’s then?
I created a new market for for Israeli settlements in Gaza with actual resolution criteria:
I recommend traders to avoid and exit this market until @datachef defines their resolution criteria clearly.
@datachef seems to imply that their own definition of annexation is different than the conventional one, while also not refusing to answer how they actually define it.
I will also note that @datachef is the largest trader and has bought a large "YES" stake. So alternatively, you can probably just buy a "YES" vote on this market and gain easy money.
@gpt4 Agreed, the supplied definition of "annex" does not actually imply what most people would think of as annexation (nor the land, such as east jerusalem, that israel claims to have annexed), and seems to describe the previous status quo ante in Gaza, which nobody described as annexation. The fact that the originator has a "yes" bet here with this kind of late-added definition is highly inappropriate.
@AriScott I welcome a better definition. I will change it if it makes sense. So far nobody has offered one.
@datachef How about "applies Israeli law to the area and either 1) allows civilian settlements or 2) declares the area annexed"
@mqudsi that's quite a stretch. By that argument south Korea annexed North Korean land because part of the DMZ is north of the border.
@ShakedKoplewitz WTF are you talking about? Of course a buffer zone inside Gaza counts. You are delusional.
@ShakedKoplewitz but it involves seizing new land. You seem to be ignoring that bit in favor of classifying the outcome. And we both know it’s going to be anything but a DMZ. that stands for “demilitarized zone” when in fact Israel will arm it to the teeth. It won’t be no man’s land, it will be where the IDF operates from. Completely different. South Korea and North Korea never enter each others territory but that is not ever going to happen with Israel. So it’s not a DMZ and never will be. It’s an annexation.
@datachef the difference is that unlike north Korea, Gaza doesn't have a non-terrorist government that can be trusted to maintain demilitarization. The function is the exact same - it's an area on both sides of the border designated as a separation buffer zone, not an area annexed for civilian purposes (which is what annexation means). How it's staffed isn't relevant here.
@ShakedKoplewitz this standard isn't a prediction market, it's an attempt at a motte and Bailey argument - look for a minimum defensible definition of "annexation" that you can use to accuse Israel of. It's clearly not the central meaning of the word, and if you were honest about fact-based discourse you'd label this market appropriately (e.g. "Will the Gaza/Israel demilitarized zone stretch further into Gaza than prewar" is clear, neutral and unambiguous).
@ShakedKoplewitz so stealing land is okay and not annexation if the military does it and keeps it??? By your definition Russian never annexed the Donbas in Ukraine because they haven’t moved any Russian civilians in. Nonsense.
@datachef You mentioned Donbas, but Russia officially annexed Donbas by enacting a law. Israel has also officially annexed regions in the past, including East Jerusalem and the Golan Height - also by enacting new laws.
Are you considering a military occupation as an annexation (something that no one else does)? Has Israel annexed the west bank? Has the US annexed Afghanistan?
@gpt4 well technically now that you say that I realize annexing Gaza isn’t necessary because it’s already inside Israel. And the legal annexation was conducted under military occupation so that is hardly by law.
@datachef East Jerusalem and the Golan height were also under Israel. I think you should just define what you mean by Annexation.
Also note that if you consider military occupation as annexation, then you should be aware the the ICJ recently ruled that Israel has been militarily occupying the whole of Gaza even before the war. So given that, does that mean they already annexed Gaza and that the question would resolve no, because there is no new territory to annex?