I will resolve this question to YES if there's at least one clear indicator of this happening that's explicitly traceable to this event. Examples of what that would entail include:

• Sam Altman bounces back and rejoins OpenAI, which then proceeds to accelerate even faster at the cost of safety (i.e. there's an explicit top-down policy to pursue capabilities full stop)

• At least one major AI player, on the level of say Anthropic, is born that is: a) undoubtedly accelerationist, and b) explicitly cites Sam Altman as their inspiration (while also expressing sympathies for this incident in some other way)

• A systematic movement against alignment labs, programs, or research in general gains steam and takes down at least one major research institution on the level of say, Conjecture.

• A comprehensive, highly upvoted LW/EA retrospective is written about it and explicitly concludes that it was net negative.

I'm open to improving the resolution criteria over the next couple of weeks, but I suspect the answer to this would be unambiguous.