Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
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Note that to be declared eradicated, there must be zero reported cases for 3 years. From https://www.who.int/activities/certifying-eradication-of-dracunculiasis:
To be declared free of dracunculiasis, a country that has stopped transmission of the disease must have reported zero indigenous cases through active surveillance for at least 3 consecutive calendar years.
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We can pray it will. Hope this horrible thing gets extincted ASAP. (Looks like it might've started jumping to dogs, though.)
@Slackhammer It's been in dogs for a while. The relatively new thing is actually tracking that, because we didn't realize that dogs/cats/monkeys could be a reservoir that might infect humans.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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