There's definitely significant room for arbitrage across all of these cancer vaccine markets. Melanoma is the only one that has passed phase 2 / has planned phase 3, it is by far the most likely cancer to have an approved mRNA vaccine by 2028.

@vluzko The base rate for phase 3 -> approval in oncology is ~35%, and the melanoma trial got pretty stellar results.

Why did you submit like 349 identical markets and are flooding new queue?

@Micrified I’m half sorry – as you can see, that was it, not going to make more for now – but also a bit annoyed you asked. These markets are the opposite of frivolous. (My hope that they’ll attract information may be naive, otoh.) While I’d be happy to make them in a more concise and flexible way, it’s really mostly because I’d like to see even more scenarios and timeframes covered.

@yaboi69 Approved answer

@yaboi69 I think these markets are great and I'm glad you made them.

@yaboi69 I do think the timelines are a little short for many of them (assuming you're interested in the overall potential of mRNA vaccines for cancer and not specifically interested in the 2028 date) - cancer trials run long because the target is usually survival rates over a period of years (often 2), meaning roughly 6 years from phase 1 start to phase 3 finish if everything goes perfectly and the company moves very fast. Moderna famously moves very fast on trials and mRNA-4157 is looking like it will be an 8-9 year timeline. Maybe make duplicates of the cancer markets for 2030 or 2032?