Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026? | Manifold

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

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22

Ṁ1506

2026

44%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors. Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?

Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.

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Turns out that larger semiprimes have been factored with adiabetic quantum computation and quantum annealing, so I’ve changed the question to refer exclusively to Shor’s, which was the original intention.

@Yoav actually I’ll just exclude pre-compilation.

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