Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Ubisoft Entertainment SA undergoes any of the following by January 1, 2026:

1. Bankruptcy: Files for bankruptcy protection or enters formal insolvency proceedings

2. Acquisition: A third party acquires majority control (>50%) of Ubisoft or its parent holding company

3. Ceased operations: Ceases substantially all business operations and winds down

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Ubisoft, regulatory filings with the French Financial Markets Authority (Autorité des Marchés Financiers), or equivalent official sources. The market resolves NO if none of these events occur by the deadline.

Background

Ubisoft reported a €159 million loss for fiscal year 2024-2025, with net bookings down 20.5% to €1.85 billion. In November 2025, Ubisoft postponed the release of its first-half 2025-26 financial results at the last minute, triggering widespread speculation about the company's future.

Ubisoft created Vantage Studios, a €4 billion subsidiary managing Assassin's Creed, Far Cry and Rainbow Six, with Tencent acquiring a 25% stake for €1.16bn. In January 2025, Ubisoft appointed advisors to explore strategic options for the company, allegedly related to a potential buyout deal.

Ubisoft has not confirmed any acquisition rumors, and until the company releases its financial results or makes a formal announcement, all speculation remains unverified. The recent trading halt and earnings delay have fueled speculation but do not constitute evidence of an imminent transaction.