AI seems advancing fast enough on stuff like math proofs that it's plausible it'll do it in the next decade or two, mars landing seems much further off.

@ShakedKoplewitz my reasoning too :)

why did it settle onto 20% like it's some true probability lmao

@warty Huh?

@warty

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aumann%27s_agreement_theorem

@IsaacKing I was trying to nudge it but it felt like people decided it's 20 and would buy down. Well now there's some movement :) @MartinRandall don't think it applies here ;)

From your description, sounds like it can be any person, not necessarily limited to a “man”, yes?

@JimHays man is synonymous with humankind

@daniel There’s more inclusive synonyms though

I bet YES but then realized that we' could zolve this one easy by just landing a really big lego tower on marz with a guy standing on top of it so that's what I'm betting happens.

Related:

@IsaacKing this is already a joke market but that one is really pushing it 😂

Why does this close in 4 days?

@AnlAnar thanks, edited

my reasoning: idk about spacex progress but I'm not getting man-on-mars-soon vibes. but agi will come in a minute and solve math

@warty what if math is so hard that even with significantly qualitatively improved intelligence, an ai wouldn't be able to break new ground on the P=NP question ;)

... I mean, I mostly agree with you, though.