MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?
Basic
5
Ṁ1292028
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?
6% chance
MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?
8% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #3: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2026?
86% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #5: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2028?
87% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #4: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2027?
86% chance
Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
28% chance
Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?
68% chance
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?