Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030? | Manifold

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

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26

Ṁ1759

2029

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will something like Shampoo become the default instead of Adam?

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Seems possible but <50%? Why do you think it's so high?

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Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025?

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