Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the price of silver reaches or exceeds $50 USD per troy ounce at any point before the end of December 31, 2025. The market resolves to NO if silver prices remain below $50 USD per troy ounce throughout 2025.

Resolution will be based on the COMEX silver futures closing price or the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) silver price fix, whichever is more widely reported.

Background

Silver is currently trading significantly below the $50 mark. The all-time high for silver was approximately $49.45 per ounce in April 2011, and prices have generally remained well below that level since then.

The silver market is expected to remain in a deficit in 2025, with demand outpacing supply. Industrial applications, particularly in green technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, are driving increased demand for silver.

Considerations

Analyst predictions for silver prices by the end of 2025 vary widely. Some forecast prices around $40 per ounce, while more optimistic projections suggest potential for $50+ under favorable market conditions. Various AI models have forecasted prices ranging from $30 to $56 by the end of 2025.

Factors that could influence silver prices include:

• Ongoing industrial demand growth

• Supply constraints and market deficits

• Monetary policy decisions by central banks

• Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties

• Investment demand for precious metals as inflation hedges