Following President Trump's recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities without explicit congressional approval, there is debate over the constitutionality of his actions. This market predicts whether Congress will pass a formal resolution condemning these airstrikes before July 21, 2025. Resolution will be based on official congressional records.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Elon Musk officially forms a new political party in the United States. Official formation is defined as Musk publicly announcing the creation of the party and filing the necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to establish the party's legal status. Verification will be based on official FEC records and credible news reports.

Background

In June 2025, Elon Musk publicly criticized President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," a significant tax-and-spending package. Musk labeled the bill a "disgusting abomination" and expressed concerns over its potential to increase the national deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion. In response to the bill's passage, Musk suggested the formation of a new political entity, tentatively named the "America Party," aiming to represent the centrist majority of Americans. This proposal emerged amid escalating tensions between Musk and Trump, with the latter threatening to review and potentially cut federal subsidies to Musk's companies, such as Tesla and SpaceX. (time.com, reuters.com)

Considerations

The establishment of a new political party in the U.S. involves navigating complex legal and bureaucratic processes, including state-specific ballot access requirements and compliance with FEC regulations. While Musk's substantial resources could facilitate these steps, the actual formation and operationalization of a new party within the specified timeframe remain uncertain. Additionally, Musk's previous political engagements have been marked by shifts in allegiance, which may influence the likelihood of him following through on this initiative. (time.com)