Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the date when the first aerial attack involving 1,000 or more drones and/or missiles strikes Ukraine. The count includes all types of drones and missiles launched in a single coordinated assault. Verification will be based on reports from reputable news organizations such as the Associated Press, Reuters, ISW and others.

Background

As of July 1, 2025, the largest recorded aerial assault on Ukraine occurred on June 29, 2025, when Russia launched 537 aerial weapons, comprising 477 drones and 60 missiles. Ukrainian forces intercepted 211 drones and 38 missiles during this attack. (ft.com)

Considerations

Given the escalating scale of aerial assaults in the conflict, with recent attacks nearing 1,000 combined drones and missiles, it is plausible that future strikes could meet or exceed this threshold. Traders should monitor ongoing developments and official reports to assess the likelihood of such an event occurring.

Resolves YES for one month if an attack exceeding the treshold is reported for that month.

If the attack occurs during a night of a month split with attacks starting at least before 11pm local Ukrainian time on the last day of the previous month, I will resolve both months to 50%.

Otherwise each month will be resolved NO when that month is over.

I will not trade in this market.