Background

The United States is currently a key military and financial supporter of Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in military aid to Ukraine and maintains a strong alliance with the country. There is no historical precedent for U.S. military action against Ukraine, nor any current policy discussions suggesting such a dramatic shift in relations.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if the United States conducts direct military strikes or launches a military invasion against Ukrainian territory during the 2025 calendar year. This includes:

• Air strikes

• Missile attacks

• Ground invasion

• Naval engagement

The market will resolve as NO if:

• No military attacks occur

• The U.S. continues its current policy of supporting Ukraine

• Military aid or training is provided to Ukraine

• Diplomatic tensions arise but no military action is taken

Accidental engagements or friendly fire incidents will not count as an attack for market resolution purposes.

Considerations

• The U.S. and Ukraine are currently strategic allies with extensive military cooperation

• A U.S. attack would represent an unprecedented reversal of long-standing foreign policy

• Current U.S. policy focuses on supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and potentially facilitating peace negotiations

• Major policy shifts typically require Congressional approval and would likely face significant domestic and international opposition