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Why was this resolved at 62%? What does that mean?

@MarkBowen it only impacted the sweepstakes portion

"[...] We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. [...]"

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113991956474899296

Not sure I see an answer here but what if he goes to the disputed Crimea territories, Russia claims them as theirs

@KevinBurke I would say it doesn't count because they're Ukraine

@KevinBurke You really stepped in it here bud.

@KevinBurke I think the same like if they visited one of the polar sectors claimed by multiple countries including Russia

do embassies count

@AndrewG not if it's a Russian embassy in a.cointry other than russia

@strutheo what about disputed territories that aren't related to the current war (e.g. the Kuril islands)

At 50:50 odds, yes seems like an easy bet. He's talked about resolving the Russia/Ukraine conflict, he values personal relationships in any sort of negotiation, and four years is a long time.

If nothing else, there will be events that spike this market towards yes even if he doesn't actually go, so unless Trump promptly dies or something, I should have opportunities to unload my YES position at a profit.

@DanHomerick Here's why I'm taking the opposite side: In his first four years, Trump never once stepped foot in Russia, despite ample coverage of his relationship with Putin in the news and his bragging about their relationship. Now that the US is essentially supporting a shooting war with Russia, it seems even less likely.

Peace talks generally take place in neutral countries, not hostile territories. Trump's visit to North Korea only came after multiple diplomatic talks in neutral countries, and the visit itself was purely symbolic. I don't anticipate an opportunity for the same kind of symbolic showmanship following peace talks with Putin - even after the shooting stops, I just don't think tensions can cool that quickly.

Your expectation that the market might spike is reasonable, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's already being priced-in and ~50% is already a high-ball estimate for that reason.

@SteveMichaels Good points, but this time he is in a 2nd term where (22nd Amendment withstanding) 3+ terms should not be possible. He can play more fast and loose with his actions.

sweepified!

Sweeped! Any thoughts on terrority that could arguably be Russia's but maybe some would say it's Ukraine's? Eg. maybe some treaty is in the works and Trump visits an area of land that was previously Ukraine's but is occupied by Russia and in the treaty going to officially become Russian.

@SirSalty it would be a political decision on manifold's part, which do you recognize lol

id say all the conflicted zones wouldnt resolve imo

@strutheo 😆 let's hope that doesn't happen then

We could resolve to Google Maps borders, maybe?

@Quroe hmm doesnt google change their borders depending on the country they serve

Oh! Is that true? If so, today I learned.

@Quroe https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/segments/google-maps

@strutheo this aged weirdly

@JussiVilleHeiskanen haha

upgraded to PLUS