Will JD Vance be president of the United States at any point before the end of January 2029?
26
Ṁ17842029
27%
chance
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Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Temporary Presidencies Excluded:
If JD Vance serves as president solely due to a temporary or acting capacity (such as a brief succession triggered by another president’s incapacitation), that scenario will not be counted.
Only cases where JD Vance assumes the presidency in a permanent or constitutionally recognized manner will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
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Here is a related market with more accurate percentages: https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/who-will-be-the-us-presidential-ele-fb4966f81a9a
Does "Acting President" count, for example these cases? https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/list-vice-presidents-who-served-acting-president-under-the-25th-amendment
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