Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
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แน€78k
2045
50%
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Open until either event happens

See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person

See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars

See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo

See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o

  • Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:

    • The market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars.

    • In the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death.

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bought แน€150 NO

One of the most overpriced markets on the site.

opened a แน€10,000 NO at 50% order

What if no human ever walks on Mars?

@ALN open forever until he dies

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Probably not.

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upgraded to PLUS

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added 1000 subsidy

opened a แน€100 NO at 62% order

Limit orders for NO are up!

@firstuserhere nvm thought this was elon going to mars market

bought แน€20 YES

seems pretty low if we expect humans on Mars by 2040

bought แน€250 YES from 61% to 63%
bought แน€100 NO from 54% to 51%

@Jono3h those humans will be Chinese and Korean and taking a big risk. Elon won't go unless it's on his own boat, low-risk, and he's got a real job to do on Mars.

Impossible to really predict because AGI messes up long term predictions but that's hownit seem to me rn

bought แน€250 YES

@Jono3h oops thought this was will elon himself go to mars market, you're right that this market should be higher

bought แน€100 NO

@Jono3h at 70 minimum.

The oldest person ever to enter eath's orbit was 77

It would be if we were expecting it

Is he considered to be alive if he is in cryogenic stasis, have successfully digitized his consciousness, or is in a otherwise pseudo living condition?

@GazDownright come back to me when it happens lol. if hes in a coma and they ship him to mars maybe i will count it if the general consensus is that he is

@strutheo Haha! You're gonna give him ideas now ๐Ÿ˜‚

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55% chance around ~210 traders

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70% chance at 170 traders

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~60% at ~140 users

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