Open until either event happens
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
The market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars.
In the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death.
~65% chance around ~2045 looks consistent
/strutheo/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-th
@Jono3h those humans will be Chinese and Korean and taking a big risk. Elon won't go unless it's on his own boat, low-risk, and he's got a real job to do on Mars.
Impossible to really predict because AGI messes up long term predictions but that's hownit seem to me rn
@Jono3h oops thought this was will elon himself go to mars market, you're right that this market should be higher
@GazDownright come back to me when it happens lol. if hes in a coma and they ship him to mars maybe i will count it if the general consensus is that he is
70% chance at 170 traders