Open until either event happens
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
See: /strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
The market will remain open indefinitely if no human ever walks on Mars.
In the absence of a human landing on Mars, the market will resolve upon Elon Musk's death.
Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A human does not need to survive the Mars landing for the market to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES if someone walks on Mars, even if they are sent there with minimal viability (e.g., someone terminally ill who survives only 1-2 weeks).
1,000
3.00@strutheo "before anyones ready" as in no viability whatsoever for a Mars landing, or just no viability for survival afterwards? I figured a pretty high level of viability was required to resolve this YES, since the market is about when "a human walks on Mars". A corpse hitting the surface at terminal velocity should hardly suffice.
Then again I can see this ghoul sending someone there as a publicity stunt with no viability to survive past the oxygen their suit can carry.
@Panfilo Yes but getting profit in ~30 years is not a good enough incentive to invest much.
~65% chance around ~2045 looks consistent
/strutheo/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-th
@Jono3h those humans will be Chinese and Korean and taking a big risk. Elon won't go unless it's on his own boat, low-risk, and he's got a real job to do on Mars.
Impossible to really predict because AGI messes up long term predictions but that's hownit seem to me rn
@Jono3h oops thought this was will elon himself go to mars market, you're right that this market should be higher
@GazDownright come back to me when it happens lol. if hes in a coma and they ship him to mars maybe i will count it if the general consensus is that he is