Negotiations between the union and Canada post will end on the 22nd of May, so a strike would have to happen in the 8 days after that [1]. I think a strike is likely, but it's a question of how long will it will take the union to organise a strike. I cannot see any information on if the members need to authorize a strike or not, or if they have already done so. It also seems that the Industrial Inquiry Commission Report is scheduled to come out on May 15th [1], so even if negotiations were to break down I doubt that it will occur before that date. Additionally with the current trade war between the US and Canada the union seems to think that the government will want to support its own workers and a Canadian delivery group rather than American/international private companies. [3]

Overall I'm split, but I am voting no as I don't think that strike action can happen in such a short time span, though I very well may be misunderstanding the timeline of industrial action.

Sources:
1. https://www.cupw.ca/en/looking-month-ahead-important-dates
2. https://www.canadapost-postescanada.ca/cpc/en/our-company/news-and-media/corporate-news/negotiations/2025-04-29-canada-post-and-cupw-agree-to-resume-negotiations
3. https://www.cupw.ca/en/current-status-talks
4. https://www.cupw.ca/en/negotiations-update-bargaining-resumes