Which country will be the last one to win the Eurovision song contest at least once?
Basic
12
Ṁ776
2101
75%
Other
7%
Slovenia
6%
Slovakia
2%
Hungary
2%
Bulgaria
2%
Andorra
1%
Iceland

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Eurovision_Song_Contest_winners

As of this question posting (March 2024) at least 22 countries have not won the Eurovision song contest yet

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Presumably this is limited to European countries? Or do you add all countries that participated at least once?

@MartinModrak only eligible countries

@strutheo The list of eligible countries (members of EBU + specially invited associates of EBU) changes over time though, and not all eligible countries participate, so the stopping criteria could use a bit of clarification.

@MartinModrak ah I didn't know this, can you send me the criteria they use to decide ? I guess I will do all countries ever eligible then

@MartinModrak I assume they must have some definition for Europe they use ?

@strutheo AFAIK not really, if there's political agreement within EBU (and the applicant), it will fly, otherwise no. E.g. Australia, Canada, and Kazakhstan all participated to varying degrees in the past (the latter two only in satellite events).

EDIT: To be a bit more precise - being an active member in EBU makes you automatically eligible for Eurovision and to be in the EBU, you need to be within "European Broadcasting Area" and/or Council of Europe. However, any "associate member" can in principle be invited to participate and associate members are not geographically restricted in any way.

Finally there's the question of willingness, e.g. both Lebanon and Vatican City are eligible, but unlikely to participate in the forseeable future (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_in_the_Eurovision_Song_Contest#Other_countries)

@MartinModrak ill look more into this - the spirit of the market are those that are eligible and actively competing

@strutheo one simple option would be to just compile a list of countries following the current state and say that the market resolves to the last of those....

Latvia should resolve NO since they won in 2002.

@andri thanks (i cant resolve early on this one i dont think)

@strutheo Can you rename the answer to Lithuania? They haven't won yet and nobody has bet on the option.

@andri ah good call

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules