♟️What will happen during the 2024 World Chess Championship? [ADD RESPONSES]
♟️What will happen during the 2024 World Chess Championship? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Ṁ2883resolved Dec 30
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YESfour or more draws
Resolved
YESfive or more draws
Resolved
YESsix or more draws
Resolved
YESthree or more draws
Resolved
YESitalian game opening is played
Resolved
YESthe champion wins at least once with the black pieces
Resolved
YESboth players lose with the white pieces
Resolved
YESA position that has never occurred in the Lichess Masters database is reached within the first 5 moves (10 ply) in any game
Resolved
YESA player loses a game on time (doesn't include not showing up to the game)
Resolved
YES7 or more draws
Resolved
NOFour knights game opening is played
Resolved
NOruy lopez opening is played
Resolved
NOevan's gambit is played
Resolved
NOboth players win with the black pieces
Resolved
NOan irregular opening is played (A00 in the opening book)
Resolved
NOSicilian opening played at least once
Resolved
NOSodium attack, Ware, Bongcloud or a3 opening played
Resolved
NOPawn is captured en passant
Resolved
NOqueenside castle happens at least once per player across multiple games
Resolved
NOCheckmate on the board
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answered5mo
queenside castle happens at least once per player across multiple games
@strutheo This resolves to NO - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024 lists queenside castle only once (Game 6)
answered4mo
A player loses a game on time (doesn't include not showing up to the game)
answered4mo
a player plays an opening with an animal name
answered4mo
A player forfeits a game (for any intentional or unintentional reason)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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