Who will run for U.S. president before 2060 [Independent Resolution] [Free Response]
Who will run for U.S. president before 2060 [Independent Resolution] [Free Response]
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38
Ṁ54512060
91%
Gavin Newsom
87%
Gretchen Whitmer
86%
Pete Buttigieg
80%
JD Vance
69%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
50%
Stephen A. Smith
41%
Jeff Jackson
23%
Liz Cheney
18%
Tucker Carlson
9%
Tim Ferriss
7%
Michelle Obama
6%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
5%
Taylor Swift
4%
Chuck Norris
3%
Tim Cook
1%
Jimmy Carter
Resolved
YESVivek Ramaswamy
Resolves Yes for a given candidate at the point they announce intent to run and take appropriate steps to register, no upon their death or in 2060.
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answered1y
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
Do you mean “in the 2028 election or later”? Because otherwise Ramaswamy should resolve to YES, right?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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