The U.S. federal government entered a shutdown on October 1, 2025, after funding lapsed. This market concerns federal employees who were furloughed (i.e., placed in non-work, non-pay status due to the lapse in appropriations) during this shutdown.
Since 2019, the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act (GEFTA) has been understood to guarantee retroactive pay for furloughed federal employees after a shutdown, and OPM’s current shutdown guidance (updated Sept. 28, 2025) cites 31 U.S.C. §1341(c)(2) to that effect. However, during the present shutdown the White House OMB circulated guidance and a memo suggesting back pay may require new appropriations, creating public dispute over what will happen this time.
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if, after the end of the October 2025 shutdown, federal employees who were furloughed during this shutdown are paid retroactive salary covering their furlough period(s). It resolves to NO if (a) an enacted law or binding official guidance states furloughed federal employees will not receive back pay for this shutdown, or (b) 90 days elapse after the shutdown ends with no back-pay disbursement and an official statement indicates it will not be provided. Payments or policies affecting contractors or excepted (working-without-pay) employees do not affect this market’s outcome; only furloughed federal employees count.
Resolution will be based on official sources, such as:
• OPM shutdown/back-pay guidance and updates;
• the text of an enacted law (e.g., GEFTA/31 U.S.C. §1341(c)(2)) as published on
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if 95% or more of furloughed federal employees receive back pay as a class under official policy.
The market will resolve NO if a subgroup larger than about 5% is denied back pay as a matter of policy or law (not due to individual errors or delays).
This is a binary resolution with approximately 5% tolerance.
1,000
3.00Suppose 99%+ get paid but under 1% of furloughed workers are considered to be some special case that don't get back pay, how does this resolve?
Just a single worker special case not getting back pay causes a no resolution or how many needed or is there some % resolution based on proportion getting back pay or something else ?
It’ll be binary, with a tolerance of about 5%, pending available information. If 95% or more of furloughed federal employees receive back pay as a class (i.e., it’s authorized and disbursed under official policy), the market will resolve YES.
If a subgroup larger than about 5% is denied back pay as a matter of policy or law (not due to individual errors or delays), it will resolve NO.
I’m open to adjusting the tolerance if the community consensus points to a fairer threshold.
Great question, thanks for asking!