OpenAI rolls out mandatory age verification for ChatGPT in the U.S. before March 1, 2026

Ṁ176

2026

67%

chance

ALL

OpenAI recently announced plans to implement age verification for ChatGPT to protect minors. This market resolves to YES if OpenAI implements a mandatory age verification system for ChatGPT users in the United States before March 1, 2026.

Age verification could include:

ID verification
Behavioral analysis to predict age
Any system that attempts to verify users are over/under 18

Resolution criteria: This market resolves to YES if OpenAI implements any form of mandatory age verification for ChatGPT users in the United States before March 1, 2026. This includes systems that attempt to automatically detect a user's age or require ID verification in certain cases. The market resolves to NO if no such system is implemented by the deadline.

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Does this resolves yes if they just do a simple liability-escaping thing like asking for the users age and trusting them?

@MaxE this resolves YES only if OpenAI implements mandatory age verification (ID/document via a third-party flow or automated selfie/liveness age estimation; simple self-attestation (“I’m 18+”/entering a birthdate) does not count.

Post your probability and one link that moved you. I’ll highlight the best arguments in the market description.

— YES: policy pressure + safety optics + targeted rollouts (ID in some flows / automated age inference).

— NO: friction, ID liability, and “soft” teen modes without true verification.

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