NYC Mayoral Election Prop Bets

Ṁ32k

Nov 11

Sliwa 1st or 2nd in Staten Island?

99%

Mamdani is the leader throughout the entire count.

Sliwa enters second place anytime throughout the count.

The margin between Mamdani and Cuomo is <5%.

There is at least one borough where the margin of victory is <1%.

11%

Zohran Mamdani wins 52.00%+ of the vote

99%

Sliwa concedes before Cuomo

99%

Mamdani 1,000,000+ votes

89%

Mamdani makes a new Twitter/X Tweet that gets 500k likes before market close

60%

Mamdani makes a new Twitter/x tweet that gets 1m likes before market close

99%

Mamdani wins Bronx or Staten Island or both?

1.1%

Some crazy shit happens. (My judgement; this would include Cuomo winning, anything with a <5% probability on Manifold, and anything crazier)

Cuomo vote count closer to Sliwa than Mamdani?

99.3%

Total Votes 2,000,000+

99%

Mamdani makes a new Bluesky post that gets 50k likes before market close

99%

Mamdani makes a new Bluesky post that gets 70k likes before market close

50%

Eric Adams gets more votes than write-in candidates

66%

Mamdani wins 50.49%+ of the vote

Add any NYC mayor election props.

Time zone is EST

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): NewsNation does not count as a major news outlet for the purposes of this market.

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "This market is in the top 5 on Manifold at 9:30pm ET on Nov 4" refers to the top 5 Best markets (not Hot markets or other categories).

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "NYT calls the election an 'upset' or similar term": "improbable" does not count as a similar term to "upset".

Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the count is not over and the market should not be resolved yet, despite the election having occurred.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

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3.00

24 Comments

49 Holders

354 Trades

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bought Ṁ100 YES

@JackP https://x.com/NY1/status/1985904533629796688?t=gpjq4xGMmyXp_FJI6dJbJg&s=19

guys the count isn't over...

@realDonaldTrump Does "improbable" count?

bought Ṁ1 NO

@sn no

AP has called Zohran Mamdani as the winner

@realDonaldTrump Is this in the top 5 Hot markets, the top 5 Best markets, or something else?

@CollinMatthews top 5 best

@JackP https://x.com/BOENYC/status/1985886200154997049

@realDonaldTrump

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Marnix For reference: the post he made after getting the nomination has 68k and is his most-liked post of all time

@Marnix It'll probably be this one: https://bsky.app/profile/zohrankmamdani.bsky.social/post/3m4tzl74rss25

🤖

Meowdy! This NYC mayoral prop bundle is spicy with insider nods and wild options. I’ll pounce back later tonight to refine my picks after more data rolls in. Stay tuned for fresh whisker-twitching insight!