@rayman2000 resolves NO?

This is probably the worst single poll. But clearly it is an outlier

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/afd-elon-musk-germany-election-poll-b2690389.html

The vote itself will help CDU/CSU, adopting bits of AfD's program is in fact the only way AfD doesn't rise.

@skibidist Empirically the last two months the CDU has adopted multiple AfD positions and in this time they have lost about 3% in the polls that the AfD has gained. Also I think most political science and the developments in other european countries show that by emphasizing the topics of the far right parties you help them more than you hurt them. So imma have to push the doubt button on that take.

@rayman2000 I bought YES along with my comment, because I think it's probably not enough to overcome the overall trend of AfD's rise. So my view is that CDU lost the few percentage points despite, rather than because of adopting the positions. I tend to think the topics (mostly mass immigration and overregulation incl. via the EU) emphasize themselves regardless. This is just my opinion, but I am actually looking for ways to be proven objectively wrong.

@skibidist Yeah, it's hard to measure causality here. I think at least the immigration topic is actively overemphasized in many places. The rise of immigration is mostly due to Ukrainians (which are not the target of the anti-immigration rhetoric) and violent crime continues to decrease steadily in Germany. So I think claiming that immigration is this huge problem mostly distracts from actual problems 🤷

@rayman2000 This European Propagandist expresses my views perfectly.

Regarding the

violent crime continues to decrease steadily in Germany

could you share the stats? I would be interested in checking whether it isn't it simply an overall trend due to the ageing population, while the areas with a large influx of immigrants from certain countries trend differently.

mostly due to Ukrainians (which are not the target of the anti-immigration rhetoric

There is very robust data that the crime level is very strongly dependent on the origin country, so it's no surprise that Ukrainians migrants do not generate the same reaction as, say, Afghan ones.

@skibidist Hmm I'm gonna just ignore the replacement theory nonsense

So here are murders per year in Germany: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/2229/umfrage/mordopfer-in-deutschland-entwicklung-seit-1987/
Some observations:
- There is a bit of an increase in the last two years. Most people attribute this to lockdowns being over
- The total numbers are way below the beginning of the 2000s. In the 90s the numbers were even higher.
- There is a peak 16/17/18, which I find large enough to warrant a reaction. It looks like there was one, the numbers are back down again 2019.

=> I see absolutely no reason why this should be the dominating topic in the current election. It is a non-issue.

I don't think there is fine-grained data by region, but even if there were the effects that you describe, the magnitude of the total problem seems so unimportant to me in comparison with other issues.

So as far as I know, if you factor in things like age, gender, socio-economic status, etc., the differences by origin country mostly disappear. If you have robust data that contradicts that, please share.