@traders sorry for not updating this more often especially given the description. I notice that I flinch away from thinking about this market given that I'm disappointed with the updates. I owe the market relevant information, though, so:

1. I will not be completing the course work in the first 2 years, I've been working full time and taking a reduced course load. This worked for my master's but is becoming more difficult

2. I just switched jobs, so I'm not taking classes this spring even though I am still working on research with my advisor

I would probably bet this market down to the 5-10% range, but I'm not going to bet on this market for obvious reasons.

@probajoelistic Does the market close time cause this to resolve NO if it's not YES by then?

@Quroe good Q because I don't understand how this could've ever resolved YES if so, considering, even as acknowledged in the description, the phD COURSEWORK portion usually takes 2 years alone. the latter part another 2-3-4 or whatever

@probajoelistic I might be being dumb here, but the 2 listed factors don't seem like they would prevent you from completing the PhD, they'd just delay it, right?

What are some reasons you think you might not finish your PhD? (Presumably you have something in mind, given that you created this market.)

@gregrosent

1. I don't plan on going into academia, so it isn't necessary for my career path

2. I am working while doing this which worked for my master's degree, but is a lot more difficult in this program

3. It's going to be really tempting to just stop when I complete the course work because I'll be able to put that on my resume without spending a few years doing extra work for free

How excited are you — and your advisor— about your research topic?

Is there a possibility that your research will open a new field or dramatically expand an existing field?

@SusanneinFrance I admittedly could be more excited about other research topics

What are your reasons for pursuing a PhD?

@Ouroboros I thought it would be fun 😅. And TBF, so far, it has been

What's the completion rate and average completion time for your particular advisor?

@LucaMasters My advisor hasn't been advising long enough to give a meaningful answer, but (highly relevant!) stats like that are pretty elusive even at the department level 🤷