🇺🇸 If Biden wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
Plus
10
Ṁ278resolved Sep 4
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is tracked by Our World In Data's Democracy Data Explorer which uses data from The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and currently lists the US central estimate at 0.82. 0.80 is the lowest central estimate for the US since 1975.
If Biden does not win the 2024 general election, this will resolve NA. Otherwise:
If the 2025 central estimate for the US falls to 0.79 or below, this resolves YES
Otherwise, resolves NO
Partner market: /probajoelistic/-if-trump-wins-will-the-us-electora
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
80% chance
If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?
Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Will the democracy score for the United States significantly decrease by the end of 2025?
28% chance
Will the US fall in the Freedom Index in 2024?
60% chance
If Trump wins, will the US score lower in the 2026 World Press Freedom, Corruption Perceptions AND Democracy Indexes?
82% chance
Will the US fall below 30th on the Index of Economic Freedom rankings by 2029, conditional on each candidate winning?
Will any state be decided by <0.1% in the 2024 presidential election?
2% chance
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
34% chance
Conditional on NON-record high voter turnout, will Joe Biden win the 2024 election?
1% chance