Fed decisions in 2025
26
Ṁ8881
Dec 31
71%
Cut–Cut–Cut
22%
Cut–Cut–Pause
5%
Cut-Pause-Cut
1%
Cut–Pause–Pause
0.7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
0.6%
Other
0.6%
Pause–Cut–Cut

  • Rate Definition: Use the upper bound of the target federal funds range.

  • Meetings Covered (2025): Sep 16–17, Oct 28–29, Dec 9–10.

  • Per-meeting outcome:

    Cut = new upper bound lower than just before the meeting;

    Pause = unchanged;

    Hike = higher.

  • Market outcome: Resolves to the three-meeting sequence (e.g., Cut–Pause–Cut). Any Hike or any sequence not listed resolves to Other.

  • Inter-meeting moves: Emergency/unscheduled changes are ignored.

  • Sources: FOMC post-meeting statement and policy rate pages:

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

  • No December statement by Dec 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT → Other.

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