Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
Plus
32
Ṁ11252040
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Computer proof assistant is a tool, that by using computation, is able with "certainty", verify and build new proofs from underlying specified axioms (Lean4, Coq, Agda, etc...).
Resolves YES if before the end of 2040 there is a trustworthy poll/evidence that shows more than 50% of professional mathematicians use or rely on it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@OlegEterevsky For example, what if mathematicians will primarily do teaching, rather than research?
Related questions
Related questions
Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
60% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
65% chance
Will an AI be able to convert recent mathematical results into a fully formal proofs that can be verified by a mainstream proof assistant by 2025?
5% chance
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
23% chance
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
41% chance
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
56% chance
Will a plausible proof obfuscator be found by end of 2024?
53% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
32% chance
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
65% chance
Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?
20% chance