Each year category resolves to the percentage of people worse than the best AI at predicting the future.
To measure who is better or worse at predicting the future, I will look at how the best AI system did in the ACX prediction contest. In summary, it is about placing a bunch of predictions at once on relevant topics. You can read more about it here: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/.
I might use a different contest if I find a better one.
Similar market about problem solving: https://manifold.markets/patrik/how-good-will-ais-be-in-solving-com.
1,000
3.00
Notice that even older models are doing better than prediction markets.
@MalachiteEagle Very interesting. Tho I think something like they used for openai o1 and o3 models but with questions that are after the training data could be even a better way.