This question will resolve YES if any of the following are reported:
Some unauthorized actor was able to breach an AI lab's network security.
For example, if an AI lab's model weights are exfiltrated.
A capability improvement that an AI company was shared without authorization
For example, if an engineer is publicly accused of sharing secrets with another company.
A data breach that involves customer data, like ChatGPT bugs in 2023, will not trigger a YES resolution.
This market will resolve NO if, by Jan 1, 2025, there exist no public reports of a significant incident.
This is a near-identical market to Rob Wiblin's 2023 market here.
1,000
3.00I think that between this market being “near-identical” to one that resolved No for 2023, and the only incident in question being in early 2023, and that incident being kept secret because it wasn’t impactful enough (ie. didn’t reveal the sort of things used as examples in the description), that this market was overvalued and is likely to mod resolve No (lacking new news) due to a deleted creator.
Hacker accessing extensive company-internal chat logs was recently reported on by NYT https://archive.ph/7K69b#selection-645.129-645.133
This occurred before creation of this market, but I'd assume this market should cover anything first reported on during the question's duration (otherwise no market would cover such events).
Important question! I've curated it on https://theaidigest.org/timeline, it'd be nice to see more questions on lab infosec and harms from breaches