If the New York City mayoral election is between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani, who will win?

160

Ṁ150k

Nov 4

Zohran Mamdani88%

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This market resolves to the winner of the NYC mayoral election if the election is a head to head matchup between Cuomo and Mamdani on election day.

If any other major candidates are actively campaigning on election day, this market resolves N/A

A major candidate is a candidate polling at 1% or above. The current major candidates are Cuomo, Mamdani, Eric Adams, Curtis Sliwa.

Update 2025-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If either Andrew Cuomo or Zohran Mamdani drops out, this market will resolve to N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ5,250 NO

Adams has dropped out, and Mamdani is at 86% on Polymarket, 90% here

https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election?tid=1759175952689

https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/who-will-win-the-2025-new-york-city

@Gabrielle Curtis Sliwa hasn't dropped out... yet.

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Im on yes because I dont see them dropping out unless they think Cuomo can actually win.

So I think N/A is the way more likely outcome

If Mamdani doesn’t win, it’s rigged

this scenario is genuinely the funniest possible outcome i think. Cuomo manages to get Sliwa and Adams to drop out through whatever method and sees his poll numbers skyrocket from a frigid Mamdani +20 to a balmy Mamdani +8

bought Ṁ150 NO

How will this resolve if Cuomo or Mamdani drops out?

@Robincvgr (Cuomo being the nontrivial possibility here)

@Robincvgr I’d assume N/A

n/a

I wish the threshold was 2%

So this is almost guaranteed to N/A?

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