Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?
104
Ṁ11k
Nov 16
96%
Neel Nanda
90%
Yoshua Bengio
89%
Nick Bostrom
78%
Geoffrey Hinton
78%
Yuval Noah Harari
73%
Stuart Russell
72%
Manifold
68%
A professor of a Chinese university
66%
Kevin Roose
62%
Patrick McKenzie
60%
Christine Peterson
60%
Toby Ord
53%
Vitalik Buterin
52%
David Chalmers
50%
San Francisco Chronicle
50%
Keach Hagey
50%
Geoffrey Irving
50%
Carl Feynman
49%
Evan Hubinger
49%
Dwarkesh Patel

Resolution criteria

Each answer option will resolve to "Yes" if the individual or organization publicly endorses "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares. An endorsement is defined as a public statement of support or recommendation for the book, which can be verified through reputable sources such as official press releases, interviews, or social media posts. A repost of someone else's opinion counts (e.g., if OpenAI retweets a recommendation from Sam Altman, that counts as an endorsement). For media, unless an "editorial" is added, endorsement in a feature article counts. A mixed opinion that overall recommends the book and can be cited for a blurb counts. If no such endorsement is made by the resolution date, the answer will resolve to "No." The market will close on December 16, 2025, three months after the book's release date, and will resolve based on endorsements made up to that date.

Background

Eliezer Yudkowsky is an American artificial intelligence researcher and writer, known for his work on AI safety and decision theory. He is the founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI). Nate Soares is the president of MIRI and has co-authored several papers on AI safety. Their upcoming book, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, is scheduled for publication by Little, Brown and Company on September 16, 2025.

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Does "a current pope" include the patriarchs of Alexandria?

@ms To clarify, I am referring to Pope Tawadros II of Alexandria and Patriarch Theodore II of Alexandria.

@metachirality for the purpose of the market, i mean the guy (gender-neutral, who knows) in Vatican

Elon Musk will not endorse the book. This is because he's too self-conscious and its title would lead his followers to accuse him of trying to kill everyone with Grok.

<3

bought Ṁ20 YES

This market needs liquidity

Why is Greg Egan 50%?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@ms https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/414087/artificial-intelligence-openai-ai-2027-china

Vice President JD Vance has reportedly read AI 2027, and he has expressed his hope that the new pope — who has already named AI as a main challenge for humanity — will exercise international leadership to try to avoid the worst outcomes it hypothesizes. We’ll see.

Dude thinks the pope is gonna save us lmao, we're toast

@TheAllMemeingEye I mean it makes sense that a high-level cleric might know some powerful spells to stop AGI from killing everyone

@TheAllMemeingEye Tbh, if the pope himself came out and said "AI is going to kill us all unless we do something", that would probably have a very large impact. Imo, that's a step above "making the headlines", probably past smashing the mainstream overton window to pieces (moreso than statements from people like Trump or Guterres would be), and possibly all the way to a shift in the global conversation.

@UnspecifiedPerson I fear his approach may be a continuation of the current strategy of praying it goes ok and writing extremely long extremely low-news-coverage posts that from a momentary skim seem to talk about how AI isn't truly smart like God's in-his-image creation surely is (https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html ).

However, if as you say he does the sane thing of leveraging his position in advocacy of the actual AI safety movement in a publicly engaging way, then that might actually help a lot.

I've added more people!

[Deleted]

"Pope Leo XIV" would be a funny longshot since he's focusing a decent amount on AI

bought Ṁ132 YES

@DZC thanks!

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