When will OpenAI release a more capable LLM?
Premium
30
Ṁ79122027
49%
2024
23%
January-April 2025
11%
May-August 2025
9%
September-December 2025
7%
2026+
Mostly self-explanatory.
A new version existing model with a larger context window won’t count.
To count as more capable, the LLM should be able to be better across benchmarks relevant to capabilities while not performing worse on some benchmarks relevant to capabilities.
In the previous iteration, GPT-4o didn’t count; o1-preview did count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@wrhall available in api or chatgpt counts, even if only for a selection of users from the general public; available invite-only to enterprise doesn’t count
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) solve more than 2 of the first 5 new Project Euler problems?
45% chance
Will OpenAI release an LLM moderation tool in 2024?
61% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
71% chance
Will openAI have the most accurate LLM across most benchmarks by EOY 2024?
37% chance
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
18% chance
Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
35% chance
What will be the maximum context length of any OpenAI LLM by EOY 2024?
Will OpenAI reveal a textless LLM before 2025?
19% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
59% chance