1.

Resolution Criteria

• YES if, by November 3, 2026, no U.S. state offers general mail-in or absentee voting for federal elections (House or Senate).

• Limited carve-outs (e.g., for military personnel, overseas voters, or voters with specific disabilities) are still allowed and do not prevent a YES resolution.

• If even one state allows general mail-in voting for its resident population, this resolves NO.

• Laws passed but not implemented by Election Day do not affect resolution.

2.

Clarifications

• The scope applies only to federal races (House and Senate).

• In-person, early voting, or electronic voting options are unaffected.

• Litigation pending as of Election Day is irrelevant unless it has explicitly stopped general mail-in voting from occurring.

3.

Context & Recent Developments

• On August 18, 2025, Donald Trump announced plans to eliminate mail-in ballots and restrict voting machines ahead of the 2026 midterms. He pledged an executive order to enforce this, arguing that mail voting is “corrupt” and that states act as mere “agents” of the federal government (WSJ).

• Legal experts, however, widely argue that Trump has no constitutional authority to unilaterally eliminate mail voting, which is set by states (with Congress able to intervene legislatively).

• States like Arizona have already vowed to resist federal attempts, with officials saying they’d tell Trump to “pound sand” if he tried to ban mail voting statewide (Axios).

4.

Why This Market Matters

Mail-in ballots became a flashpoint in 2020, with many states expanding access, while others tightened rules. Eliminating them broadly would reshape U.S. elections. Trump’s push makes this a live political question, but the legal and logistical hurdles are steep.

5.

Resolution Sources

• State election codes and websites

• National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL)

• Reporting from AP, Reuters, and other credible election trackers

Summary:

This resolves YES only if general mail-in voting is unavailable in every state by 2026 midterms. Special carve-outs (military, overseas, disabled voters) don’t count against elimination.