Will the United States (US) withdraw from NATO by December 31, 2028?
Plus
20
Ṁ8502028
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The following will resolve NO: The United States continues to stand as a full NATO member continuously, through December 31, 2028. Full NATO member is defined as continuing to assent to all NATO articles, and not going into “stand-by” or any other reduction in membership status.
All other scenarios, including the US leaving NATO and returning, or the disbandment of NATO altogether, resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2025?
21% chance
Will the US quit NATO by 2028?
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
25% chance
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027?
19% chance
Will Trump withdraw from NATO in 2025?
21% chance
Will any country withdraw from NATO by the start of 2032?
23% chance
[Metaculus] Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
96% chance
Will the GOP try to pull the U.S. out of NATO by 2027?
18% chance
Will any country threaten withdrawal from the UN by 2028?
54% chance
At the end of 2025, will US troops have withdrawn from the Baltic states?
36% chance